All Articles
Practitioner-grade analysis across banking, agri finance, economics & data science
The 21-Mile System Risk
Hormuz is no longer just an oil story. It is a system risk transmitting shocks from fertiliser and food to semiconductors, capital flows and money.
The Rogaland Contingency: Norway's Quiet Bet on the Global Food System
A massive phosphate discovery in Norway could reshape global fertilizer markets. But for African agriculture the real constraint may not be supply — it is logistics.
Smallholder Credit Markets and the Collateral Gap
Smallholders produce much of Africa’s food, yet remain locked out of formal finance. The issue is not effort. It is collateral, land systems and institutional design.
Kill Switch
What happens when the algorithms governing modern markets face a coordinated shutdown? An analysis of systemic fragility and the political economy of financial circuit breakers.
The First Real Test of South Africa's 3% Inflation Regime
SARB's new 3% anchor is being stress-tested by imported inflation before it has even been formally adopted. What the rand, oil and food prices mean for the new regime's credibility.
The Diesel Crisis No One Is Pricing In
The 2026 diesel shock is not really an oil story. It is a systems story about chokepoints, war-risk insurance, Africa’s refining gap and the fuel that quietly moves food, freight, farming and inflation across the continent.
Who Really Captures the Value Inside a Firm?
South Africa’s CEO pay debate is not just about whether executives are overpaid. It is about whether firms can keep concentrating reward at the top while the wage base beneath them remains too weak.
The Economics of Coffee: Competition, Espionage and Value Extraction
Farmers grow coffee, but don’t control its value. This is the story of how production lost power — and where profits actually moved.
High-Altitude Banking: Eating in the Sky — FirstRand H1 FY2026
FirstRand's interim results reveal widening NIR margins, resilient impairments and a growing disconnect between bank profitability and South Africa's low-growth economy.
Why Nedbank Sold Ecobank to Buy a Fintech — FY2025 Results
Nedbank's FY2025 results reveal a deliberate pivot: exiting pan-African legacy exposure while doubling down on digital lending, merchant data and embedded finance.
Banking Beyond South Africa — ABSA's Continental Ambition
ABSA's results tell a story of deliberate geographic diversification. Revenue mix, cross-border credit quality and the real cost of continental ambition.
The Pan-African Payoff: Standard Bank FY2025 Results
Standard Bank's FY2025 numbers make the case for continental scale — NIR dominance, non-SA income contribution and what the strategy costs in capital and complexity.